STATEMENT OF

CHARLES C. GROAT

DIRECTOR, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

BEFORE THE

COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

UNITED STATES SENATE

on

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ARCTIC REGION AND ALASKA

May 29, 2001

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee, thank you for this opportunity to present testimony on behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regarding scientific research being conducted on climate change in the Arctic region and how climate change is impacting that region, with special emphasis on Alaska.

Within the Arctic region, Alaska hosts some of the most important hydrologic, biologic, mineral and energy resources of the Nation and is subject to a wide variety of natural hazards, particularly earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. Rich in pristine wilderness and natural resources, Alaska has some of the largest tracts of federally owned land in the country. Some of the Acrown jewels@ of the National Park Service and the National Wildlife Refuge System occur in Alaska. The Department of the Interior (DOI) is responsible for the management of more than 218 million acres of Alaska, an area larger than the entire State of Texas. More than 50 percent of the lands that Interior manages are in Alaska. More than 40 percent of the Nation=s freshwater supply and more coastline than the rest of the States combined are found in Alaska. More than 3100 miles of designated rivers in the Wild and Scenic River System are in Alaska. Of the national total, nearly 70 percent of designated Wilderness areas B more than 57 million acres, roughly the size of Oregon B are in Alaska. Areas classified as wetlands total 170 million acres, more than all other States combined.

As the principal science agency of the DOI, the USGS provides understanding of past and contemporary Alaskan environments and is positioning the region to better anticipate and prepare for what may happen in the future. The stewardship mission of the Department must be informed by an integrated scientific understanding of how climate changes may interact with other natural and human-induced environmental stresses. To advance that critical understanding, the USGS sponsored an assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change to Alaska with the University of Alaska, Fairbanks (UAF). The 1997 workshop, which received funding from DOI, was one of a series of regional workshops that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) sponsored as part of its national assessment of the potential consequences of climate change. The workshops brought together researchers, governmental agencies, industry, non-governmental agencies, and the public to assess the potential impacts of climate change on Alaska. The attached assessment report, APreparing For A Changing Climate,@ addresses the following four questions:

o What are the current environmental stresses and issues that will form a backdrop for potential additional impacts of climate change?

o How might climate variability and change exacerbate or ameliorate existing problems?

o What are the priority research and information needs that can better inform decision making and the policy process?

o What coping options exist that can build resilience to current environmental stresses, and also possibly lessen the impacts of climate change?

This report is available online at

http://www.besis.uaf.edu/regional-report/regional-report.html

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ALASKA

Current climate studies indicate that high-latitude regions of North America, especially Alaska and northwestern Canada, are presently experiencing some of the most dramatic warming in the world. Alaska has experienced the greatest warming of any State in the Nation over the past 50 years; this trend is consistent with model predictions that show increased temperatures at higher latitudes. USGS pioneered scientific studies of climate that showed some of the earliest evidence for warming in Alaska.

Alaska, like many other areas of the world, experienced a shift to warmer temperatures in the late 1970s. The following are some of the major climate-related trends in Alaska that scientists have observed:

$ Air temperatures in Alaska have increased an average of 4° F since the 1950s, 7° F in the interior in winter, with much of the warming sparked by a large-scale arctic atmosphere and ocean regime shift in 1977.

$ The 30-year air temperature record shows that increases are greatest in winter and spring and in the interior of Alaska and north of the Brooks Range.

$ Recent reports suggest that summer sea ice has decreased about 3 percent per decade since the 1970s, multi-year sea ice has decreased by 14 percent since 1978, while sea ice has thinned at a rate of 4 inches per year from 1993-1997. These decreases in sea ice have affected subsistence hunting patterns and increased the danger of hunting on the ice.

$ Boreholes reveal that permafrost temperatures in northern Alaska have increased 2-4o C (3.5-7o F) above temperatures 50-110 years ago; permafrost has thawed in some places to a point where it is discontinuous, resulting in increased road maintenance costs and ruining traditional ice cellars of some northern villages.

$ Precipitation has increased about 30 percent for most of Alaska west of the 141 degrees West Longitude between 1968 and 1990; exceptions are the southeastern part of the State and summer precipitation in the interior, particularly around Fairbanks.

$ Warmer conditions have allowed insects to thrive when cooler summers and colder winters would have normally destroyed or limited their extent; the spruce bark beetle has destroyed over 3 million acres of forest.

$ The growing season in Alaska has lengthened by 13 days since 1950.

The 1997 UAF/DOI-sponsored Alaska workshop that was part of the APreparing for a Changing Climate@ assessment attracted people from within as well as outside of the State to discuss current and potential issues associated with the State's forests, tundra, coastal systems, permafrost, marine resources, wildlife, subsistence economy, and human systems (such as transportation, energy, and land use), under changing climate scenarios. With further warming in Alaska, a variety of consequences are possible. The location, volume, and species mix of fish catches could change, causing stress as the industry deals with relocation of harvesters and processors. While the permafrost is melting, the maintenance cost for pipelines could increase, but construction costs could be lower in areas where it has melted. The loss of sea ice could reduce costs for offshore oil and gas exploration and production and improve shipping, but coastal erosion could increase due to higher relative sea levels and increased storm intensity with concomitant impacts on coastal communities.

A longer growing season could improve agriculture and forestry yields, but warmer temperatures, increased summer drying, and disease-stressed trees could increase flammable vegetation, thus increasing the potential for forest fires.

Engineering must account for impacts of future thaw on existing infrastructure (highways, railroads, military and commercial airfields, buildings and the oil pipeline). For example, planning for future energy resources extraction and construction of the proposed natural gas pipeline will need to take into account the changing properties of soils that are experiencing permafrost thawing.

Fisheries may be at risk from climate change. For instance, sockeye salmon in this region support a long-established fishery, generating millions of dollars annually and providing thousands of jobs. They also play a critical role in Alaska=s sensitive coastal ecosystems. Adult sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay's tributaries provide food for killer whales, grizzly bears, eagles, and other predators. Eggs deposited in the streams and rivers feed many other species of fish throughout the system. Even in death after spawning, tons of decaying salmon flesh contributes marine-derived nutrients used by both plants and animals along Alaska=s rivers. Ongoing USGS studies are measuring historical patterns of sockeye growth in marine and freshwater environments and identifying linkages between growth rates and climatic conditions. These USGS studies, which will generate preliminary results in 2003, will provide a thorough analysis of the effects of climate change on sockeye salmon production in Bristol Bay during the freshwater and early marine life stages that are most likely to be sensitive to fluctuations in climate.

Preliminary research suggests climate change may be implicated in the annual greening of vegetation earlier in the year. Studies by USGS scientists indicate that during the 1990s the period of time when the active layer of permafrost begins to warm to when it refreezes again has increased by more than 30 days at several sites on the Alaskan North Slope. Studies of past geologic periods by USGS geologists show that forest replaces tundra during warm climatic intervals.

New studies by USGS researchers are showing that the coastal rain forest of the Tongass National Forest in southeastern Alaska has a complex and dynamic history. This forest, which did not exist in Alaska during the last ice age, is still expanding. Some of Alaska=s National Parks may see a shift in the type of vegetation that dominates their landscapes as this forest continues to migrate northward. Policy and land management decisions by the National Park Service and the U.S. Forest Service depend on understanding the dynamic nature of this ecosystem.

USGS monitoring revealed that glaciers receded in the last decade of the 20^th century at the highest rates of the 30-year monitoring record; recently de-glaciated terrains are rebounding, sometimes rising centimeters per year through both glacial rebound and tectonic forces; and ranges of plants and animals are changing and expanding northward. One of the major attractions for many of Alaska=s National Parks (Denali, Wrangell-St. Elias, Glacier Bay, and Kenai Fjords) is the stunning array of glaciers that have shaped, and continue to shape, the rugged Alaskan mountain landscape. USGS researchers have used satellite imagery to make precise maps of these glaciers and to monitor their changes over time.

Melting permafrost is altering the boreal forest near Tok, Alaska.

(Photo courtesy of T. Osterkamp, University of Alaska, Fairbanks)

Graphs showing the trend in earlier spring runoff in northern Alaska, which has consequences for human activities. The stream-gage shelter for Nunavak Creek is tilted, but is still operational. The straight lines on the graphs are simple regression lines that show the trend in an earlier onset of spring runoff.

NATURAL RESOURCES AT RISK AND RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR USGS

USGS is studying the effects of climate on Alaska=s resources. These efforts are in close alignment with the USGCRP. The USGS acquires, manages, and makes available a treasure of remotely sensed data used by Alaskan, Federal, and State land management agencies for mapping, monitoring, and modeling vegetation, hydrology, and geologic processes; monitoring fires, volcanoes, and floods; and characterizing the landscape in support of the scientific and management communities. An example of the application of these data and tools is the Interagency Consortium Program, which is designed to produce a consistent, comprehensive, and flexible land cover database for the State (the Multi-Resolution Land Characterization 2000 Program). The membership of this Federal consortium includes DOI bureaus (National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and USGS), Department of Agriculture (U.S. Forest Service), NOAA, NASA, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The consortium's objective is to provide repetitive coverage of satellite data that can be used to document and explain changes in land use and land cover. The Program is new to Alaska, and state-of-the-art land cover mapping and data analysis methodologies are being developed through research at the USGS Alaska Science Center.

The USGS is the developer and manager of the Internet-based Alaska Geographic Data Committee=s (AGDC) Geospatial Data Clearinghouse. The AGDC=s Clearinghouse serves as the Alaska Gateway to the data holdings of its members, over 40 Federal and State agencies, borough and municipal governments, Tribal Organizations, universities, and private companies within Alaska. The AGDC Gateway provides public access to everything from legal land status to detailed historical mining reports, USGS topographic maps, virtual visits to national parks, archives of remotely sensed data, and real-time stream-gage information. While its primary focus is on information that has a geographic context, the AGDC Clearinghouse also links to a broader range of environmental data through its Arctic Environmental Data Directory, which provides connections to the entire circumpolar Arctic international scientific community. Alaska agencies, native organizations, and the private sector are involved in analyzing and responding to critical issues that include hazard prevention, land conveyance, resource exploration and development, legal access and public safety, public use and resource assessment, and community and economic development.

Other ongoing USGS studies related to climate change in the Arctic include monitoring the Yukon River to document a 5-year baseline of water, sediment, and chemical loading delivered to the Bering Sea. Data will provide a baseline to compare changes that may occur in the Yukon over the next 20 to 50 years. This effort will focus on measuring the carbon and nitrogen in the river that are fundamental to the health of the ecosystem. USGS will also measure contaminants in air, water, sediment, and fish tissue that may affect people and wildlife.

USGS is measuring and modeling carbon cycling and nutrient storage as they relate to climate, permafrost, and fire. Partnerships with other scientific agencies allow USGS to contribute and interact with scientific experts of all disciplines on issues of carbon and nutrient cycling. USGS scientists play a key role in providing field-based data on soil, peat, wetlands, and water and gas chemistry. USGS also develops and applies mathematical modeling of the effects of climate on vegetation, soils, water, fire, and ecosystems. USGS monitors the permafrost temperatures in 21 deep boreholes in the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska. Analysis of temperature profiles in the deep boreholes provided some of the first evidence that the Alaskan Arctic warmed 2-4o C (3.5-7o F) during the 20th century. Analysis of all the boreholes is being conducted under the Global Terrestrial Network - Permafrost in collaboration with other agencies and other countries.

USGS is providing information and research findings to resource managers, policymakers, and the public to support sound management of biological resources and ecosystems in Alaska. This includes studies of the role of Arctic and subarctic environments in maintaining wild stocks of nationally important marine and anadromous fish species and nationally important migratory bird populations; the ecology of marine mammals and their role and effect as top-end consumers in Arctic and subarctic marine environments; the role of Arctic and sub-arctic environments in maintaining the ecology of terrestrial mammals, and the role of top herbivores and carnivores in the dynamics of Arctic and subarctic terrestrial systems.

USGS is providing records of past climates and vegetation groups that existed in Alaska, which are key to understanding the likely consequences of future climate changes in high-latitude ecosystems. Current USGS work on the fossil record and climate history of Alaska suggests that future periods of cooler, drier climate would result in shrinkage of forest boundaries, lowering of the altitude-limited tree line, and expansion of tundra vegetation into lower elevations. A future change to warmer, moister climates would result in expansion of Alaska's forests into areas now occupied by tundra. Measuring and modeling climate-land interactions will provide a basis for resource planning for Alaska lands.

Plant fossils, such as leaves, wood, cones, pollen, and seeds, provide important evidence of how Alaska's vegetation has responded to climate changes over time periods of centuries to millions of years. USGS studies of the Alaskan fossil record of plants include data from many natural exposures and sediment cores. These data provide the basis for reconstructing the record of past vegetation changes over millions of years of Earth history. The fossil record shows that dramatic changes in high-latitude vegetation have occurred many times in the past, primarily in response to global climate changes.

USGS monitoring of volcanoes is providing information on the processes that trigger eruptions, generate volcanic ash clouds and result in volcanic emissions. The latter can impact climate (for example, the sulfur-rich 1991 eruption of Pinatubo volcano in the Phillipines caused temporary global cooling.) Studies of eruption dynamics, down-slope transport of lava and volcanic debris, and the history of past eruptions contribute to an understanding that goes beyond the question of Awhen@ to also address the question of Awhat to expect@ when a sleeping volcano wakes up. The issue of volcanic ash and aviation safety is another aspect of USGS volcano monitoring. The world's busiest air traffic corridors pass over hundreds of volcanoes capable of sudden, explosive eruptions. Airborne ash can diminish visibility, damage flight control systems, and cause jet engines to fail. The Alaska Volcano Observatory, a cooperative effort of USGS, UAF, and Alaska Division of Geologic and Geophysical Surveys, plays a major role in the effort to reduce the risk posed to aircraft by volcanic eruptions.

The USGS has provided critical information for Alaska's development decisions, through our scientific studies of permafrost, gas and oil resources, mineral resources, fish and wildlife populations and their habitats, and the impacts of petroleum exploration, development, pollution, and climate change on terrestrial and marine mammals, migratory birds, anadromous fishes, and marine invertebrates. USGS leadership in technical review and advice during the planning and permitting of the Trans-Alaska pipeline is an example. This role included a significant contribution toward designing the pipeline to withstand disturbance associated with permafrost.

In the past, Bristol Bay, Alaska, has produced more wild-caught sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) than any other region in the world, with record runs exceeding 50 million fish annually. Recently, however, adult sockeye runs in Bristol Bay have declined 78 percent, even though counts of both juvenile fish leaving the rivers for the ocean and adults returning to the rivers to spawn have indicated strong sockeye salmon production in the freshwater tributaries to the Bay.

Recent developments have demonstrated that western Alaska salmon stocks are also in serious trouble. The returns of summer-run chum (Oncorhynchus keta) and chinook (O. tshawytscha) salmon over much of western Alaska during 2000 were the worst ever recorded. The weak returns of chinook (a 75 percent decrease) and chum (62 percent decrease) salmon into the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers have prompted regulatory actions by both the State and Federal fisheries managers that have resulted in the closure of subsistence harvests, and restrictions on commercial and sport fishing. The Yukon River pink salmon, which are not harvested, had a 90 percent decline in 2000. The USGS is conducting research addressing critical information gaps concerning the spawning ecology of Yukon River salmon. These studies will allow for long-term comparisons of salmon production in relation to significant shifts in the physical environments of the North Pacific leading to accelerated declines in species assemblages, including a marked decline in salmon runs returning to Alaska.

Polar bears live in the ice-covered portions of the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas adjacent to Alaska. Their dependence upon drifting ice makes polar bears an important indicator of global warming and its effects in the Arctic. Ongoing USGS research is investigating interactions between bears, their principal prey, ringed seals, and the changing sea ice that supports both of them.

USGS coordinates Arctic research with the Arctic Research Council and the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC). Through this coordination, we ensure that USGS research complements, rather than duplicates, research of other agencies. IARPC, through an interagency working group, is coordinating a multi-agency research program, "Study of Environmental Arctic Change" (SEARCH). Planning for SEARCH involves the Departments of the Interior, Agriculture, Defense, and Energy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and National Science Foundation.

Geologic maps are used by land, water, and natural resource managers at all levels of the government and by the private sector to achieve the most efficient use of Earth resources in a way that is sustainable and economically viable. Economic growth is driven largely by access to the Earth's resources. Geologic maps provide the spatial framework to locate these resources. Unlike topographic maps, which show the elevation of the Earth's surface, geologic maps display the array of soils, sediments, and rocks that are present at and below the Earth's surface. These maps are essential for a complete characterization of materials mobility in ecosystems. Detailed geologic maps are useful for mineral and petroleum exploration, for hazard assessment, and/or for land and natural resource planning.

USGS is well positioned to contribute to meeting the challenges facing Alaska. USGS= long-term study of the biological, geological, hydrologic, and energy and mineral resource systems of Alaska have addressed not only the location and utility of the resources but also their origin, sensitivity to climate and disturbance, and the fate of these resources in the future.

Mr. Chairman, this concludes my testimony. Thank you for the invitation to present testimony on this important topic. I would be happy to respond to any questions Members of the Committee may have.