DOI News


New Paper on "Choosing and Using Climate-Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions"


12/06/2013

A new paper, "Choosing and Using Climate-Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions" examines how to choose from myriad climate scenarios for things like impacts and/or vulnerability assessment. Jeremy Littell, Lead Research Scientist at the Alaska Climate Science Center, co-authored this research.

The guide to climate change scenario use addresses common misperceptions about the utility of climate scenarios for biological assessments and decision making. It presents defensible strategies for choosing and using climate-change scenarios that recognize the irreducible uncertainty of future climate and meet the challenge of developing useful climate information for decision making.

Key take-aways from the paper:
· Understanding the entire system is critical to assessing how a species will fare under changing climate
· Climate change impacts analysis requires information/input from:
 1) biologists – understanding of biological response to climate fluctuations
 2) climate (impacts) scientists – projections of future changes in important climate-related conditions
 3) policymakers – risk tolerance, time horizons, and larger context of associated decisions

To read the paper, please visit: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12163/abstract